How a Warming Gulf Could Save Maine’s Fishing Future

Opinion | Chris Payne

I was at Harbor Fish Market in Portland when I saw something odd: black sea bass from Maine waters.

The guy behind the counter shrugged. “Getting them all the time now,” he said. “Twenty years ago? Never saw one.”

That moment made something clear. The Gulf of Maine is changing faster than almost any ocean on Earth. Our waters have warmed nearly four degrees since 1980. Cod are gone. Lobsters are moving deeper and farther offshore, requiring more fuel and longer hours for the same catch.

But here’s what doesn’t make headlines: while some fish leave, others arrive. Black sea bass, squid, Jonah crabs — valuable fish that could support Maine’s fishing future.

By mid-century, our waters could be another two degrees warmer. Lobsters will keep moving to colder, deeper water. At the same time, warm-water fish are moving in: black sea bass, longfin squid, Jonah crabs, scup, butterfish.

These aren’t second-rate fish. Black sea bass sells for top dollar. Squid is wanted worldwide. Jonah crabs already bring in millions each year. Visit the Portland Fish Exchange and you’ll see the future coming off the boats. The ocean is offering a new menu. The question is whether we’ll help fishermen take the order.

Maine fishermen have thrived for over 400 years because they knew how to adapt, work hard and respect the ocean. These values built our coastal towns — not any particular fish. Adaptation takes time and won’t look the same for every fisherman. Some may slowly shift to new species while still catching lobster. Others may focus entirely on new fish. Groups like the Maine Coast Fishermen’s Association and the Island Institute are asking fishermen what they need, but their resources are limited.

Here’s the challenge: adaptation is gradual, but the ocean isn’t waiting. We need to act fast to help fishermen experiment and find what works.

Imagine the Gulf of Maine in 2050. Our docks are still busy at dawn. Some boats bring lobster from deeper waters. Others land squid and black sea bass. Some focus on Jonah crabs. Our fishermen are still among the world’s best — because they could adapt in ways that fit their boats and skills. Coastal Maine stays strong because we value our people and their abilities, not just one type of seafood.

The fish are already here. What’s missing is easier regulations, better markets and everyone working together.

So what needs to be done?

First, fix the regulations. Speed up permits for new species. Adjust quotas quickly as fish populations move. Work with fishermen to collect data — their observations count as real science, not just stories.